COMPUTER MODELING OF SECTORAL ECONOMIC DYNAMICS

The article reveals the questions of mathematical formalization and algorithmic implementation of economic dynamics. To develop a computer model of sectoral development of the Russian economy, an agent-based approach was chosen, allowing to evaluate the result of control actions as a set of reactions to them of individuals and organizations.

At present, in the practice of managing social and economic systems of various levels, new methods are needed to assess the impact of monetary, investment, tax and social policies on social stability and economic security of the country. The diversity and stochastic nature of the factors influencing the sectoral development of the Russian economy necessitated an interdisciplinary study combining agent-based simulation modeling, socio-economic analysis, methods of artificial intelligence and cognitive psychology. In the context of developing a computer model of the Russian economy, the aggregate of changes in final, intermediate and investment demand in the economy and the market response in the form of changes in the output of individual organizations, increasing or decreasing the need for personnel, financial resources and equipment are considered as mechanisms for implementing the processes of economic dynamics.

Manageable parameters of the computer model are measures for the implementation of sectoral and regional development programs, introduction of tax incentives for developing industries, etc. The model provides assessment of the impact of managerial decisions on the economic system; in particular, when analyzing various variants of sectoral programs, it is possible to compare their influence on the structure of exports - imports and assess the import-substituting effect. The proposed approach has significant differences from the currently used mathematical and software models of the economy and provides the ability to predict non-equilibrium economic systems in the long term.

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