Methodology of reliability analysis and monitoring of aircraft operation

Purpose of research. Methodology and analysis of system reliability models, including monitoring the condition of individual components and failure assessment based on the failure rate and the probability of failure-free operation of modules. The work is aimed at creating effective methods for predicting failures and estimating system recovery time, taking into account the failure parameters of individual modules and their interaction. The work also involves modeling the monitoring of the state and functioning of the system.

Methods. Research methods include analyzing system reliability using failure rates, modeling the probability of uptime of system components, calculating the average time to failure, using probability distributions to determine system status, monitoring system status in real time, estimating system recovery time, as well as developing algorithms for detecting failures and managing system recovery, modeling methods.

Results. The results of the study show that as the system's operating time increases, the probability of uptime for each component decreases due to the accumulation of failures. The simulation showed that the reliability of the system depends on the failure rate of each module and their relationship in the system. For three different systems with different failure rates, the change in the probability of uptime (R(t)) was calculated as a function of time. The analysis showed that as the operating time increases, the probability of system failure increases, which is confirmed by a decrease in the value of R(t) as the time t increases. When modeling system recovery, it was found that the recovery time depends on the number of failed modules and the intensity of their failures. The monitoring system successfully reacts to changes in real time, identifying significant events such as module failure, and estimating system recovery time based on current component status data.

Conclusion. In the course of the research, a method for modeling system reliability based on an analysis of the failure rates of its components and the probability of uptime (R(t)) was developed and implemented. The methods considered made it possible to calculate the average time to system failure, as well as to estimate the system recovery time after failure, which is a key factor in ensuring the smooth operation of critical systems. The effectiveness of the monitoring system has been demonstrated, which, based on data on the state of components (M(t)), can quickly identify failure events and predict recovery time, which allows for prompt measures to restore system operability.

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