Mathematical modelling of the process line of a multifunctional fuel gas preparation unit (MGPU) to improve its accident-free operation

The purpose of the research is a comprehensive study of the process line of a multifunctional fuel gas preparation unit (MGPU), creation of a mathematical model capable of predicting and controlling gas dryness in the process of MGPU operation, as well as determination of optimal parameters of the unit operation to improve accident-free operation and high productivity of the equipment using treated gas.

Methods. Mathematical modeling with the use of multiple regression model for prediction of dew point temperature and its influence on accident-free operation of the plant was carried out. The adequacy of the model was confirmed by the coefficient of determination and Fisher's criterion. An analysis of the limiting factors for the accident-free operation of the MGPU, including temperature, pressure and gas composition, is also presented. The accuracy of numerical modeling of the trouble-free operation of the MUPG process line based on the developed model of multiple regression of gas dryness was estimated using paired correlation coefficients and elasticity coefficients. 

Results. In the course of the work, the accident-free operation of the process line of MGPU was modeled based on the developed multiple regression model of gas dryness. The following interpretation of the model parameters is possible: increasing factor X₁ by 1 leads to an average decrease in Y by 0.279; increasing factor X₂ by 1 leads to an average increase in Y by 0.46; increasing factor X₃ by 1 leads to an average increase in Y by 0.000418; increasing factor X₄ by 1 leads to an average increase in Y by 13.288; increasing factor X₅ by 1 leads to an average decrease in Y by 13.337; increasing factor X₆ by 1 leads to an average decrease in Y by 0. According to the maximum coefficient β₂=0.384 we can conclude that the factor X₂ has the greatest influence on the result Y. Statistical significance of the equation was tested using the coefficient of determination and Fisher's criterion. According to the assessment of the accuracy of numerical modeling of the trouble-free operation of the MUPG process line, based on the developed model of multiple regression of gas dryness, a strong linear relationship between X₁ and Y, a low linear relationship between X₂ and Y, a low linear relationship between X₃ and Y, a moderate linear relationship between X₄ and Y, a moderate linear relationship between X₅ and Y, moderate linear relationship between X₆ and Y.

Conclusion. It was found that in the investigated situation: "in the possibility of prediction and control of gas dryness: justification of the hypothesis about the possibility of prediction of dew point temperature and its influence on accident-free operation" the parameters of the model are statistically significant.  

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